The 2024 3D InCites Yearbook

The Semiconductor Cycle: Looking Into the Future Dean W. Freeman

“It ain’t over till it's over.” is a frequently used Yogi Berra saying. The current semiconductor cycle has that feeling. While for some parts it appears to be over, for other parts it looks like most segments are at the bottom, and there are no strong growth indicators for the industry. A bit over a year ago, in the second quarter of 2022, the memory and processor companies were tipping rapidly into a downturn with the first hints of either quarter- over-quarter or year-over-year decline. Companies in the microcontroller and analog space servicing the automotive segment were still seeing flat to positive growth as the automotive space was still experiencing shortages for some chips. The semiconductor equipment industry was still chugging along and would not see the initial impact of the slowdown until either calendar Q1 or Q2 of 2023. As the semiconductor industry closed out 2023 and moved into 2024 the outlook was still cloudy. Starting in the second quarter of 2023 the memory and leading- edge logic segments started to see positive momentum. Conversely, the microcontroller, analog, and power side of the business looked at a soft Q4 2023. Infineon announced a 5% growth rate for its next fiscal year.

The equipment side of the business gave mixed signals for 2023 of up and down, depending upon which business segment and geographical they are the strongest. The Silicon Industry Association (SIA) data in Figure 1 shows the shape of the last cycle and the start of the rebound as the industry moves into 2024.

Figure 1. Month-to-Month WSTS data. (Source: WSTS Data)

3D InCites Yearbook



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